https://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/public-policy/The-Value-of-Content-Digital.pdf
The emergence of a new online-content
value chain is threatening the history of
incremental change, and is changing roles,
relationships, and value capture. Over time,
this might be as disruptive as the changes
experienced by the music, newspaper,
and magazine industries.
Until recently, the nature of change in the
video industry (FTA and Subscription TV value
chains) has been evolutionary as opposed to dis-
continuous; with every new development, most
players were able to gradually modify their strate-
gies and business models in order to continue to be
successful.
The emergence of a new online-content value
chain is threatening that history of incremental
change, and is changing roles, relationships, and
value capture.
These changes might, over time, be as dis-
ruptive as those experienced by the music, news-
paper, and magazine industries.
$530 billion (U.S. dollars) are at stake for
the incumbent actors across the content, broad-
cast networks, and distribution and aggregation
segments of the value chain.
Content – its ownership, aggregation, and
monetization – is at the center of these changes,
and $530 billion will be redistributed in large part
on the basis of which players are able to retain
content as a key control point.
value chain is threatening the history of
incremental change, and is changing roles,
relationships, and value capture. Over time,
this might be as disruptive as the changes
experienced by the music, newspaper,
and magazine industries.
Until recently, the nature of change in the
video industry (FTA and Subscription TV value
chains) has been evolutionary as opposed to dis-
continuous; with every new development, most
players were able to gradually modify their strate-
gies and business models in order to continue to be
successful.
The emergence of a new online-content value
chain is threatening that history of incremental
change, and is changing roles, relationships, and
value capture.
These changes might, over time, be as dis-
ruptive as those experienced by the music, news-
paper, and magazine industries.
$530 billion (U.S. dollars) are at stake for
the incumbent actors across the content, broad-
cast networks, and distribution and aggregation
segments of the value chain.
Content – its ownership, aggregation, and
monetization – is at the center of these changes,
and $530 billion will be redistributed in large part
on the basis of which players are able to retain
content as a key control point.
KEY MESSAGES
Three key forces have enabled the emergence
of the new online-content value chain that is driving
this threat of industry disruption:
of the new online-content value chain that is driving
this threat of industry disruption:
»The development of technology infrastruc-
ture (streaming network topology, connected
devices, and software) capable of delivering
a high-quality video experience directly to the
TV; by 2017, 74 percent of the European Union
and 96 percent of the U.S. will have access to
“video ready” xed broadband
ture (streaming network topology, connected
devices, and software) capable of delivering
a high-quality video experience directly to the
TV; by 2017, 74 percent of the European Union
and 96 percent of the U.S. will have access to
“video ready” xed broadband
»Increased availability of high-quality online
content, including professionally produced
television entertainment
content, including professionally produced
television entertainment
»New and cheaper models of online content
creation that are driving large audiences
assisted by a new breed of industry player, the
multichannel network; the most successful
YouTube series, for example, have a given
“episode” reach several million viewers for a
cost well under $50,000
creation that are driving large audiences
assisted by a new breed of industry player, the
multichannel network; the most successful
YouTube series, for example, have a given
“episode” reach several million viewers for a
cost well under $50,000
These forces have led to signi cant change
in consumers’ viewing behaviors, in particular the
following:
in consumers’ viewing behaviors, in particular the
following:
»Whilst overall viewing time still grows, consu-
mers’ content viewing habits are shifting to
the online value chain increasingly at the
expense of FTA and Subscription TV viewer-
ship (by 2020, the average global viewer is
expected to watch 24 hours of online content
per week)
mers’ content viewing habits are shifting to
the online value chain increasingly at the
expense of FTA and Subscription TV viewer-
ship (by 2020, the average global viewer is
expected to watch 24 hours of online content
per week)
»Driven by serialized entertainment, consu-
mers are increasingly viewing time-shifted,
non-linear content (by 2020, half of all enter-
tainment viewing in the U.S. is expected to
be non-linear, with the Europe Union trailing
closely behind)
mers are increasingly viewing time-shifted,
non-linear content (by 2020, half of all enter-
tainment viewing in the U.S. is expected to
be non-linear, with the Europe Union trailing
closely behind)
These forces are also showing early impacts
on the traditional FTA and Subscription TV value
chains:
on the traditional FTA and Subscription TV value
chains:
»Players across the value chain are diversifying
their portfolios to position themselves around
key content assets to drive future value,
manage content cost, or both
Disaggregation of value from the traditional
ecosystem driven by the emergence of the online
value chain has created a speci c set of risks for
incumbent actors:
their portfolios to position themselves around
key content assets to drive future value,
manage content cost, or both
Disaggregation of value from the traditional
ecosystem driven by the emergence of the online
value chain has created a speci c set of risks for
incumbent actors:
»An increasing share of TV ad money and
consumer spending is moving into the online
value chain
consumer spending is moving into the online
value chain
»Content creators are capturing a slightly larger
percentage of industry value with enhanced
bargaining power
percentage of industry value with enhanced
bargaining power
Key Messages
»Content value is shifting away from commo-
ditized, second-run content to compelling
mass entertainment and sports and high-
engagement niche programming entertainment
and sports and high engagement niche pro-
gramming
ditized, second-run content to compelling
mass entertainment and sports and high-
engagement niche programming entertainment
and sports and high engagement niche pro-
gramming
»Distributors and aggregators, to prevent a
decrease in the value of their physical video
infrastructure and protect video content
revenues, are being forced to adjust and
diversify their video offerings and make up
for revenue losses over multiple platforms
decrease in the value of their physical video
infrastructure and protect video content
revenues, are being forced to adjust and
diversify their video offerings and make up
for revenue losses over multiple platforms
ONLINE/MOBILE DRIVING VIDEO CONSUMPTION GROWTH GLOBALLY
Exhibit 1.0
Nr. of hours
per week spent
per media type
Nr. of hours
per week spent
per media type
Mobile video Online video TV
Nr. of hours per week spent per media type
75
60
45
30
15
0
Nr. of hours per week spent per media type
75
60
45
30
15
0
11
6
18
18
1940 1960 1980
38 37
2000 2020
2000 2020
Source: Carat insight media survey; European Technographics Benchmark Survey; emarketer; Gallup TV meter; SKO; MMS; BARB AdvantEdge; Mediametrie;
CIM TV; Eurodata TV, The Nielsen Company; BCG Analysis
CIM TV; Eurodata TV, The Nielsen Company; BCG Analysis
8|9
S
KEY MESSAGES
»Broadcast networks will face more pressure
in passing along their increasing content costs
to distributors and will see TV advertising
revenues erode as monies move online and
non-linear; potential unbundling, as consu-
mers buy content from a variety of available
à la carte offerings, will necessitate a greater
emphasis on direct consumer relationships
and content that appeals strongly to a mass or
very niche audience
»Content creators and rights holders, which
have relied on strong TV buyers to grow
revenues and promote their content assets,
will gain new buyers and new business
models to monetize their content over an
increasing number of platforms and forms
of content usage
in passing along their increasing content costs
to distributors and will see TV advertising
revenues erode as monies move online and
non-linear; potential unbundling, as consu-
mers buy content from a variety of available
à la carte offerings, will necessitate a greater
emphasis on direct consumer relationships
and content that appeals strongly to a mass or
very niche audience
»Content creators and rights holders, which
have relied on strong TV buyers to grow
revenues and promote their content assets,
will gain new buyers and new business
models to monetize their content over an
increasing number of platforms and forms
of content usage
»Exclusive content, where platform-exclusive
high-pro le content (for example, sports or
original entertainment content) are the key con-
tent assets acquired exclusively by distributors
to differentiate in a multiplatform world and
drive customer acquisition
high-pro le content (for example, sports or
original entertainment content) are the key con-
tent assets acquired exclusively by distributors
to differentiate in a multiplatform world and
drive customer acquisition
»Direct-to-consumer service, which bypasses
infrastructure-based distributors, content, and
broadcast networks with high-quality content
and strong channel brands
infrastructure-based distributors, content, and
broadcast networks with high-quality content
and strong channel brands
»Linear streaming aggregation, which is online
content aggregators’ ability to obtain streaming
content licenses from key FTA and Subscription
TV channels, is the key asset-disrupting facili-
ties-based aggregation and distribution
content aggregators’ ability to obtain streaming
content licenses from key FTA and Subscription
TV channels, is the key asset-disrupting facili-
ties-based aggregation and distribution
The implications of each scenario lead to
distinct actions across incumbent and new players:
distinct actions across incumbent and new players:
There are a number of future industry sce-
narios, centered on content ownership and aggre-
gation, that together bound the range of outcomes
from gradual, evolutionary change to one of the
following potential disruptive changes:
narios, centered on content ownership and aggre-
gation, that together bound the range of outcomes
from gradual, evolutionary change to one of the
following potential disruptive changes:
»Content creators continue to be advantaged
across all scenarios, particularly those that own
must-have content that drives signi cant audi-
ences or small, loyal fan bases
across all scenarios, particularly those that own
must-have content that drives signi cant audi-
ences or small, loyal fan bases
»Multiplatform navigation with cross-platform
content-navigation capability as the entry point
to all video and the key asset to acquire
customers
content-navigation capability as the entry point
to all video and the key asset to acquire
customers
»FTA channels with mass content will also be
well positioned if they can manage the shift
from traditional, live TV viewing to multiplat-
form, time-shifted viewing
well positioned if they can manage the shift
from traditional, live TV viewing to multiplat-
form, time-shifted viewing
»Subscription TV channels will face erosion of
market share depending on the degree to which
they are able to access differentiated and enga-
ging content
market share depending on the degree to which
they are able to access differentiated and enga-
ging content
»TV distributors and aggregators with scale
and well-developed video and broadband in-
frastructure are well positioned to compete;
smaller players or those without well-developed
video and broadband capabilities will need to
quickly expand capabilities, either through part-
nerships or M&A activity
and well-developed video and broadband in-
frastructure are well positioned to compete;
smaller players or those without well-developed
video and broadband capabilities will need to
quickly expand capabilities, either through part-
nerships or M&A activity
»Online video distributors and aggregators will
face a unique set of issues that determine the
size of their value capture, particularly whether
to migrate their platforms from non-linear to live
content, whether and how to expand interna-
tionally, and how to balance their business
models between consumer pay services and
ad-supported revenue streams
face a unique set of issues that determine the
size of their value capture, particularly whether
to migrate their platforms from non-linear to live
content, whether and how to expand interna-
tionally, and how to balance their business
models between consumer pay services and
ad-supported revenue streams
Key Messages
The scenarios above are not mutually exclusive.
Many markets are expected to develop into hybrids.
Which scenarios play out in which markets will be
in uenced by market maturity, key player moves,
and the regulatory environment.
Many markets are expected to develop into hybrids.
Which scenarios play out in which markets will be
in uenced by market maturity, key player moves,
and the regulatory environment.